A potential US-led takeover or restructuring of Venezuela’s oil sector could deliver a significant windfall for India, unlocking nearly USD 1 billion in long-pending dues and enabling the revival of crude production from Indian-operated fields in the sanctions-hit Latin American nation, according to analysts and industry sources.
India was once a major processor of Venezuelan heavy crude, importing over 400,000 barrels per day at peak levels before sweeping US sanctions and compliance risks forced refiners to halt purchases in 2020.
India’s overseas oil arm, ONGC Videsh Ltd (OVL), jointly operates the San Cristobal oilfield in eastern Venezuela, but output has been severely curtailed as sanctions blocked access to critical technology, equipment, and oilfield services—leaving commercially viable reserves effectively stranded.
Venezuela has failed to pay OVL USD 536 million in dividends due on its 40% stake in the field up to 2014, along with a near-equivalent amount for subsequent years for which Caracas has not permitted audits, freezing settlement of the claims.
Analysts and energy executives say sanctions could be eased following a dramatic US operation that removed President Nicolas Maduro and placed Venezuela’s vast oil reserves under American oversight.
Once restrictions are lifted, OVL could deploy rigs and equipment from ONGC’s Indian fields, including Gujarat, to San Cristobal, where production has fallen to 5,000–10,000 barrels per day. With additional wells and modern equipment, output could rise to 80,000–100,000 bpd, officials said.
US control of the oil sector would also enable Venezuela to resume global exports, allowing OVL to recover its nearly USD 1 billion in outstanding dues from field revenues. Earlier, OVL had sought a specific sanctions waiver similar to the licence granted by the US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) to Chevron.
Indian firms could also expand operations in Venezuela’s Carabobo-1 heavy oilfield, where OVL holds an 11% stake, while Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) and Oil India Ltd (OIL) own 3.5% each. Spain’s Repsol also holds an 11% interest. Venezuela’s state oil firm PdVSA, the majority stakeholder in both projects, is expected to undergo restructuring.
While PdVSA’s stake could be diluted or transferred to a US-backed entity, analysts believe international partners—including Indian companies—are likely to retain their holdings.
US President Donald Trump has said major American oil companies would return to Venezuela to rehabilitate its degraded infrastructure. Analysts note that the US will still need international partners like OVL for both operational expertise and market access.
India is expected to re-emerge as a key buyer of Venezuelan crude. “If sanctions are eased, trade flows can resume rapidly, as seen in past geopolitical transitions,” said Nikhil Dubey, Senior Research Analyst at Kpler. Indian refiners such as Reliance Industries, Nayara Energy, IOC, HPCL-Mittal Energy and Mangalore Refinery have the complexity required to process Venezuelan heavy grades.
Renewed access to Venezuelan oil would also support India’s strategy to diversify its crude basket, reduce dependence on Russian and Middle Eastern supplies, and strengthen its negotiating position in global markets.
Before 2019, Venezuela exported 707 million barrels annually, with India and China accounting for about 35% of shipments. By 2025, exports had fallen to 352 million barrels, largely flowing to China and opaque trading channels.
Analysts say a US-backed overhaul—bringing capital, technology, and operational discipline—could lift Venezuelan output significantly within a year, stabilising global oil markets.
“For India, Venezuelan crude offers a strategic alternative,” said a former oil executive. “Indian refineries are structurally configured for these grades. If production rises and payments normalise, trade can restart almost immediately.”
