The Indian market recovered nearly 1 percent in the truncated week ended October 3, after a steep 2.7 percent decline in the previous week, offering signs of a potential near-term rebound. The rally was supported by the RBI’s upward revision of FY26 growth forecast to 6.8 percent, banking sector reforms, hopes of further US Fed rate cuts, strong auto sales, and a sharp fall in crude oil prices. Meanwhile, gold futures surged to a record $3,923.3 per troy ounce, reflecting sustained investor demand.
Outlook for the Week Starting October 6
Analysts expect a positive bias in the coming week, with focus on Q2FY26 corporate earnings, management commentary on the second half of FY26, developments around the IPO boom, FOMC minutes, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech, and updates related to the US government shutdown and India–US trade talks.
The Nifty 50 climbed 240 points (0.97%) to close at 24,894, while the BSE Sensex rose 781 points (0.97%) to 81,207. The Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 outperformed with gains of 2% and 1.8%, respectively.
Overall, momentum has turned positive following the GST rate cuts, aided by favorable monsoon conditions, festive season demand, and accommodative monetary policy.
10 Key Factors to Watch This Week
1. Corporate Earnings
The Q2FY26 earnings season kicks off with Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) announcing its results on October 9. Other companies reporting during the week include Avenue Supermarts, Tata Elxsi, GM Breweries, Ashiana Ispat, Eimco Elecon, Evoq Remedies, Triton Corp, AAA Technologies, Elecon Engineering, Hathway Bhawani Cabletel & Datacom, Oswal Overseas, Pro Fin Capital, Sayaji Hotels (Pune), and Vivid Mercantile.
2. FOMC Minutes
Global investors will track the minutes of the US Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting, where the Fed implemented its first 25-bps rate cut of 2025, lowering the funds rate to 4.00–4.25%. The Fed has also hinted at two more cuts in the remaining meetings of the year.
Remarks from Stephen Ira Miran (October 8) and Jerome Powell (October 9) will be closely watched for insights on future rate moves and economic outlook.
3. Global Economic Data
Key international data points include US consumer inflation expectations, weekly jobless claims, European retail sales for August, and Japan’s household spending and PPI data — all of which could impact global sentiment.
4. Domestic Economic Data
In India, the HSBC Services PMI (Final) for September will be released on October 6. Preliminary data showed a slight dip to 61.6, compared to 62.9 in August.
Additionally, bank credit and deposit growth (as of September 26) and foreign exchange reserves (as of October 3) will be announced on October 10.
5. FII & DII Activity
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remained net sellers, offloading ₹8,347 crore in equities last week. However, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) absorbed the selling pressure, buying shares worth ₹13,013 crore.
The Indian rupee weakened marginally by 0.09% to ₹88.71 per USD, amid global trade tensions, though supported by RBI interventions.
6. IPO Rush
The upcoming week will be historic for the primary market, with seven major IPOs worth over ₹30,000 crore hitting Dalal Street — including Tata Capital, LG Electronics India, Rubicon Research, Canara HSBC Life Insurance, Canara Robeco AMC, Anantam Highways Trust, and Mittal Sections.
Meanwhile, WeWork India Management, Shlokka Dyes, Greenleaf Envirotech, DSM Fresh Foods, and NSB BPO Solutions will close their issues next week.
A total of 28 new companies will list on the bourses, including six from the mainboard and 22 from the SME segment.
7. Technical View
The Nifty 50 faces immediate resistance at 25,000, with further hurdles at 25,250–25,450. Support lies at 24,588, the previous week’s low. The weekly chart formed a bullish candle, suggesting buying interest at lower levels, though momentum indicators remain mixed.
8. F&O Cues
Derivatives data suggest a near-term trading range of 24,800–25,100, with broader consolidation between 24,500–25,500.
Maximum Call OI is seen at 25,000, while Put OI is concentrated around 24,800, indicating key support zones.
9. India VIX
The India VIX fell 11.95% to 10.06, reflecting declining volatility and improved investor confidence.
10. Corporate Actions
Multiple dividends, splits, and board meetings are lined up in the coming week, which could influence specific stocks.
Disclaimer
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Readers are advised to consult certified financial advisors before making any investment or trading decisions.
