V Anantha Nageswaran said that improved policy certainty arising from successful trade agreements — including ongoing negotiations between India and the United States, as well as India and the European Union — would provide a boost to exports and capital inflows.
He was speaking at a press conference following the release of a new series of National Accounts Estimates by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
Nageswaran noted that fiscal consolidation remains firmly on track, with the fiscal deficit projected at 4.5% of GDP for 2025–26 (Revised Estimates) under the updated series, while maintaining strong capital expenditure.
MoSPI has introduced a new base year of 2022–23 for its annual and quarterly National Accounts Estimates, replacing the earlier 2011–12 base year.
The Chief Economic Advisor also stated that the Economic Survey’s growth forecast for FY27 has been revised upward to 7–7.4% under the new GDP series.
He emphasized that the Indian economy continues to display strong growth momentum, supported by broad-based economic activity. Despite global uncertainties, current indicators suggest steady expansion.
On inflation, Nageswaran highlighted favourable supply-side conditions — including robust rabi sowing, adequate foodgrain stocks, and easing global commodity prices — which are expected to keep price pressures low and stable.
He further noted that private sector investment in machinery and equipment accelerated in 2024–25, with unincorporated enterprises also sustaining capital expenditure in machinery.
Commenting on capital markets, Nageswaran observed that the absence of a strong artificial intelligence (AI) theme in Indian markets in 2025 may have been a disadvantage, but could potentially turn into an advantage for attracting capital flows in 2026.
According to projections, India is on course to surpass the $4 trillion GDP milestone in 2026–27.
