Despite a landmark Supreme Court ruling in 2025 that offered much-needed relief to Vodafone Idea (Vi), concerns around a telecom duopoly are expected to persist into the coming year. While Vi will remain focused on stabilising operations and arresting subscriber losses, rivals Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel are gearing up for a phase where pricing power, premiumisation, and enterprise-led growth will be decisive.
Analysts expect the next major trigger for the sector to be a tariff hike in the January–March quarter. With the impact of the July 2024 tariff increase largely absorbed and Jio preparing for a potential IPO, the timing appears favourable for another round of price revisions. Experts estimate hikes in the range of 10–12%, likely accompanied by more nuanced plan restructuring rather than sharp increases at the entry level.
For Jio and Airtel, growth will increasingly depend on premium customers as India’s wireless market approaches saturation. Subscriber additions alone are no longer sufficient to drive ARPU growth, pushing operators to focus on higher-value plans, bundled offerings, convergence, and digital services.
Airtel has reiterated its strategy of premiumisation and digital-led expansion, highlighting investments in network upgrades, AI-driven personalisation, home broadband, and 5G fixed-wireless access. The company expects non-mobility segments such as fibre broadband and digital services to contribute meaningfully to revenue growth by 2026.
Vi may benefit indirectly from industry-wide premiumisation, as analysts believe its core customer base overlaps with Airtel’s higher-value segment. However, challenges persist. Despite network investments, Vi continues to face subscriber churn, losing nearly two million users in October, indicating that its recovery remains fragile.
Looking ahead, 2026 is expected to be a turning point for enterprise 5G adoption. With AI workloads and Industry 4.0 driving demand for low-latency, high-density networks, telecom operators with strong infrastructure are likely to unlock new revenue streams. Manufacturing, logistics, and automotive sectors are expected to lead adoption, followed by healthcare and agriculture.
The industry is also sharpening its focus on digital trust, reinforced by the implementation of India’s Digital Personal Data Protection (DPDP) rules. As the sector matures, innovation, security, and trust are set to become key differentiators in India’s telecom landscape.
