The recent US military operation in Venezuela, which saw President Nicolas Maduro and his wife detained and flown to the US, is unlikely to have any meaningful impact on India’s economy or energy security, according to the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI).
In a note, the India-based think tank highlighted that India’s trade exposure to Venezuela has significantly diminished over the past few years. Once a major buyer of Venezuelan crude in the 2000s and 2010s, with ONGC Videsh holding upstream interests in the Orinoco oil belt, India was compelled to halt oil imports after 2019 due to US sanctions, sharply reducing commercial engagement to avoid secondary sanctions.
Data from GTRI shows that in 2024–25, India’s total imports from Venezuela stood at $364.5 million, with crude oil accounting for $255.3 million, marking an 81.3% decline from the $1.4 billion in crude imports in 2023–24. Exports from India to Venezuela remained modest at $95.3 million, largely comprising pharmaceuticals worth $41.4 million.
“Given the limited trade volumes, the existing sanctions regime, and the geographic distance, the latest developments in Venezuela are unlikely to materially affect India’s economy or energy security,” the note said.
The think tank added that Venezuela holds roughly 18% of global oil reserves, more than Saudi Arabia (16%), Russia (5–6%), or the US (4%), making it a strategically important source for global energy markets. GTRI emphasized that securing Venezuelan crude was a central objective of the US operation, which also included trade deals with the EU, Japan, South Korea, and the UK to purchase American petroleum products and LNG.
Looking ahead, GTRI cautioned that global conflicts over raw materials and energy are likely to intensify. The think tank advised India to safeguard its strategic autonomy, avoid arrangements that could compromise sovereignty, and ensure stable access to critical raw materials and energy without undue external pressure.
